June 25, 2001

Quarterly Insight

Torto Wheaton Research recently published their Quarterly Insight newsletter with the following market commentary for each commercial mortgage and loan sector:

Multi-family: 2000 was a strong year nationwide for commercial mortgages and more of the same is expected for 2001. Demand should continue to outpace supply leading to continued rental growth and a healthy absorption rate as home prices maintain a high level and job security softens.

Office: The report compares the condition of the current office market to a bad hangover. Commercial mortgage net absorption is negative for the first time in recorded history for the sum of markets tracked by Torto Wheaton. High rents and commercial mortgages have attracted new developers thus adding to additional supply in a softening office market.

Industrial: The fate of commercial mortgages and associated national industrial markets will lie in the future of the economy. Despite weaknesses in the manufacturing sector the outlook will improve if the economy is able to avoid a recession. With manufacturing in question - commercial mortgages may begin to play a larger role as we begin to see more availability in space, and therefore softening rents.

Retail: The internet really did very little in the way of threatening the bricks and mortar retail markets. What has changed however, is the shape and size of retail as it has transformed over the years from "main street" retail to "shopping centers" to "power centers".

Hotel: The lodging industry's performance has improved in 2001, but will it continue? Lodging demand, particularly for the full-service segment is strongly driven by the economy and business activity, so the weak performance of the office market during the first quarter of 2001 could very well signal a weakening performance in the hotel market too. Time will tell.

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